Orange juice rises as dry weather stresses trees

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were higher, with London leading the way as it recovered a large part of the losses it suffered late last week. Some of the buying in London was tied to a tropical cyclone that has moved into Vietnam early this week and could cause some losses to Coffee production. Another system could move into the country by the end of the week. Rains are continuing in Brazil, which will promote good flowering for the next crop. No one is talking about big offers these days from Brazil, but everyone knows they had a big crop this past year and it will need to be moved. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. The weather is good, with frequent rains.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.767 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 108.75 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1580 November. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1660, 1665, and 1690 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures were sharply higher in recovery trading. October went off the Board yesterday and big deliveries are expected today. But, traders think there is demand for the Sugar and note the potential crop losses in Brazil and other countries due to rains in the forecast for this week. The rains have cut yields in Brazil and could do the same in India as the monsoon there has been very slow to recede. Trends are mixed, but the price action remains strong overall. There is talk of increased offers from India and Thailand, and Thai differentials have been under some pressure in recent weeks, but are stable so far this week. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same, so Sugar should be available at good prices for buyers.

Overnight News: Brazil could see scattered showers and moderate temperatures. ICE said that 29,344 delivery notices were posted against October contracts. Sugar was delivered from Brazil, Argentina, and Central America.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1880 and 1980 March. Support is at 1760, 1750, and 1735 March, and resistance is at 1825, 1850, and 1870 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 478.00, 476.50, and 472.00 December, and resistance is at 484.00, 488.00, and 490.00 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed little changed. The fundamentals are considered bullish as production still looks to be less than demand for the coming year. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.242 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2610, 2580, and 2555 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1695, 1680, and 1670 December, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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