Cocoa rises on holiday demand worries

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower as some speculative and producer selling emerged. There was no fundamental news. The historical peak of the hurricane season has passed and so far no storms have come close to the state. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida, and none in the forecast through at least the end of the week. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed.. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBTO:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were lower on speculative selling. Selling was tied to wire service stories highlighting the potential for very strong production in Vietnam this year. The harvest there is about to start, and some industry sources in Europe told the wires that production could be as high as 29 million bags. The Vietnamese government estimates production at 25 million bags, and private sources in Vietnam have estimated production as high as 27 million bags. Rains are being reported in Brazil to promote good flowering for the next crop. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rest is still a big problem.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 2.778 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.73 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers most of the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal early in the week and near to below normal late in the week. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1690, 1720, and 1735 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 135.00, and 132.00 December, and resistance is at 142.00, 145.50, and 148.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures were near unchanged as October gets ready to go off the Board. Doubts about Brazil production are still supporting the market. Private sources and CONAB have recently reduced Sugarcane and Sugar production estimates due to poor growing conditions earlier in the year, and UNICA will most likely do the same on October 1. Futures have made a break out higher on the charts. Brazil weather has been mostly good for harvesting. Some showers are reported now that will help support growth for the next crop but will delay harvesting of the current crop. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same. Differentials there have been moving lower in the last few weeks, but are more stable now. Brazil and India are selling as well.

Overnight News: Brazil could see scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1880 and 1980 March. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1740 March, and resistance is at 1820, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 486.00, 483.00, and 479.00 December, and resistance is at 491.00, 494.00, and 495.00 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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