Sugar rises on data showing less Brazil production

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. There was no fundamental news to support the move, but the reversal day from the day before created some buying interest from shorts and from new longs. It is possible that FCOJ futures can rally through the end of the week. The historical peak of the hurricane season has passed and so far no storms have come close to the state. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida, and none in the forecast through at least the end of the week. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed.. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were higher again, with speculators early buyers and later sellers. Industry is more interested as the market did not keep going down despite good weather in Brazil. Rains are being reported to promote good flowering for the next crop. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market as well. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rest is still a big problem. Vietnam is seeing some flooding rains in production areas. Another tropical storm is forecast to hit the country this weekend or next week and could cause more damage.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.778 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.49 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather this week and scattered showers most of the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal early in the week and near to below normal late in the week. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1685, 1660, and 1630 November, and resistance is at 1720, 1735, and 1750 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 135.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower in liquidation trading. The fundamentals are considered bullish, but chart action shows that much of the fundamental news might be part of the price. Worries are that there will not be enough Cocoa beans available for processing for end of the year holiday demand. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.296 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2565, 2540, and 2510 December, with resistance at 2610, 2625, and 2650 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1695, 1710, and 1730 December.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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