Base metals may advance through the end of the year on increased demand in China, the world’s largest user, while oil will probably see little change over the final quarter, Deutsche Bank AG estimates.
Lead, nickel, tin and zinc are set to rise, while copper may be little changed, the bank’s price forecasts show in an e- mailed report today. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was forecast at $105 a barrel in the final three months from $106.07 this quarter, according to analysts including Michael Lewis. Gold was seen at $1,350 an ounce versus $1,330.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials has climbed 4.2 percent this quarter, lagging behind a rally in global stocks as data from the U.S. to China showed recoveries gaining traction. While the U.S. Federal Reserve refrained from tapering stimulus in September, a Bloomberg survey showed most economists expect a cut in December. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pared its 12-month forecast for commodity returns this month, predicting drops in precious metals, agriculture and energy.
“Commodities continue to languish close to the bottom of the asset-class league table,” Lewis wrote in the report. “During the remainder of this year, we expect the rise in precious metals and energy returns to fade and industrial metal prices to recover.”
WTI traded at $103.74 at 7:41 p.m. in Singapore, while gold in London was at $1,322.19. Bullion is heading for the first annual drop in 13 years as investment demand wanes.
“An eventual tapering in QE by the Fed will, in our view, re-exert downward pressure on precious metal returns,” said Deutsche Bank, referring to quantitative easing by its initials. “We expect a rebound in Chinese economic activity should help to lift industrial metal prices in the near term.”