Cotton mixed as crop condition improves despite late planting

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower. Speculators keep selling on ideas of good weather in Brazil. The current crop harvest has proceeded well under mostly dry conditions until recently. Now rains are coming to promote good flowering for the next crop. Coffee is available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. New crop is now being offered. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at steady differentials. Buyers are said to be well covered and have been buying in Colombia and Peru as well as Asian crops. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but rust will cut production this year. In addition, Hurricane Ingrid brought big rains to parts of Mexico last week. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Vietnam is seeing some flooding rains in production areas, but production estimates remain high and between 25 and 27 million bags.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little higher today and are about 2.777 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.08 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers most of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal early in the week and near to below normal late in the week. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Big rains are likely in central and south central Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE certified stocks are 7,489 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 November. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1735 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 140.50, 142.50, and 145.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures were near unchanged in consolidation trading. Some selling was noted due to weaker Crude Oil and other petroleum futures, but buyers were noted on a stronger Real. Futures remain close to the upper end of the trading range. The trading range looks likely to hold. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same. Differentials there have been moving lower in the last few weeks, but are more stable now. Brazil and India are selling as well. Price appear to be in a longer term trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures. USDA has been offered 515,550 short tons of Sugar by processors participating in the loan program.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 March, and resistance is at 1790, 1810, and 1820 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 479.00, and 475.00 December, and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 495.00 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower. The fundamentals are considered bullish, but chart action shows that much of the fundamental news might be part of the price. Worries are that there will not be enough Cocoa beans available for processing for end of the year holiday demand. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.350 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 6,016 standard delivery units, 169 large delivery units, and 1 bulk delivery unit.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2600, 2565, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 December. Support is at 1690, 1670, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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