Stock market hits new highs, but celebration is muted

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

Cheers last week for strength in all of the major indexes to new highs. And cheers for MAAD that vindicated itself after a new high back on September 4 that was followed by the most recent short-term rally. And somewhat lesser cheers for Cumulative Volume (CV) that eked out new highs in the S&P 500, Dow 30, and NASDAQ Composite indexes.

But that’s the end of the cheering. Price-based trading oscillators are “Overbought” on all cycles including Minor, Intermediate, and Major. Our volatility indicator, VBVI, is back in a zone of short-term vulnerability (91%). That is only offset somewhat by a still positive intermediate-term VBVI that has been moving higher since early July. Short and intermediate-term Momentum are recent failures. And CPFL action is unmentionable.

So lest we get overwhelmed with optimism by recent market strength and movement to new highs, it’s important to note that there were a lot of empty tables at the “New Highs Party” and that it remains to be seen if those absences were prescient or merely an oversight.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

8-9-13

11

9

8-9-13

11010

29092

8-12-13

14

6

8-12-13

4664

9241

8-13-13

10

10

8-13-13

13128

13169

8-14-13

11

9

8-14-13

8818

9694

8-15-13

5

14

8-15-13

47197

81059

8-16-13

6

14

8-16-13

16021

68567

8-19-13

3

16

8-19-13

8714

27909

8-20-13

15

4

8-20-13

9335

11902

8-21-13

2

18

8-21-13

8125

54624

8-22-13

17

3

8-22-13

98636

11347

8-23-13

15

4

8-23-13

9071

30977

8-26-13

7

13

8-26-13

12717

65786

8-27-13

0

20

8-27-13

45177

61047

8-28-13

15

4

8-28-13

4443

40268

8-29-13

15

4

8-29-13

16417

63697

8-30-13

7

13

8-30-13

4341

40669

9-3-13

15

5

9-3-13

19151

10760

9-4-13

18

2

9-4-13

16402

44520

9-5-13

18

2

9-5-13

10876

7863

9-6-13

10

8

9-6-13

20113

13375

9-9-13

18

2

9-9-13

14877

16433

9-10-13

15

5

9-10-13

37460

21548

9-11-13

15

5

9-11-13

15050

30730

9-12-13

3

16

9-12-13

16370

23336

9-13-13

14

5

9-13-13

10668

4246

9-16-13

12

7

9-16-13

25807

43346

9-17-13

17

3

9-17-13

17778

10023

9-18-13

20

0

9-18-13

44523

34687

9-19-13

9

11

9-19-13

26912

17440

9-20-13

3

17

9-20-13

34321

28948

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

 

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

3-8-13

19

1

3-8-13

99617

35462

3-15-13

13

7

3-15-13

146291

30502

3-22-13

6

14

3-22-13

60614

38326

3-29-13

13

7

3-29-13

46289

19185

4-5-13

7

13

4-5-13

36138

75905

4-12-13

17

3

4-12-13

102421

24788

4-19-13

5

15

4-19-13

77064

98927

4-26-13

16

4

4-26-13

69002

47733

5-3-13

18

2

5-3-13

106307

39059

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

5-17-13

16

4

5-17-13

264768

40669

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

133188

105220

5-31-13

10

10

5-31-13

52189

172660

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

208337

89250

6-14-13

6

14

6-14-13

84672

121886

6-21-13

4

16

6-21-13

47968

226866

6-28-13

16

4

6-28-13

102801

64660

7-5-13

11

9

7-5-13

79591

26170

7-12-13

18

2

7-12-13

145875

46051

7-19-13

12

8

7-19-13

60057

30066

7-26-13

9

11

7-26-13

39694

27418

8-2-13

16

3

8-2-13

52347

54888

8-9-13

9

11

8-9-13

44818

132161

8-16-13

5

15

8-16-13

49366

206060

8-23-13

12

7

8-23-13

39357

90644

8-30-13

1

19

8-30-13

64499

287292

9-6-13

18

2

9-6-13

62543

58305

9-13-13

18

2

9-13-13

89735

66677

9-20-13

17

2

9-20-13

99524

121395

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome