Gold traders most bullish in three weeks after Fed

Mint Sales

Physical demand is slowing elsewhere, with the U.S. Mint selling 11,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in August, the least in six years and down from as much as 209,500 ounces in April. Sales totaled 9,000 ounces so far this month, data on its website show. Sales of coins and bars from Australia’s Perth Mint dropped 46% in August from July.

While hedge funds and other large speculators cut their net-long position by 16% to 84,929 futures and options in the week through Sept. 10, wagers on gains more than doubled since the end of June, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The position slumped 67% since August 2011.

Eight of 15 people surveyed expect raw sugar to drop next week and six were bullish. The commodity slid 9% to 17.76 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.

Twelve of 28 surveyed anticipate higher corn prices and 11 said the grain will fall, while 16 of 29 said soybeans will rise and nine expect lower prices. Eleven predicted gains in wheat and eight were bearish. Corn fell 35% to $4.535 a bushel this year in Chicago. Soybeans dropped 6.5% to $13.1725 a bushel, as wheat slumped 16% to $6.5125 a bushel.

Copper’s Decline

Ten traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to climb next week, eight were bearish and eight neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, dropped 7.8% to $7,313.50 a ton this year.

The S&P gauge of raw materials rebounded 1.4% since reaching a five-week low on Sept. 17. The Fed’s decision to hold stimulus came at a time when economic data from China to Brazil shows signs of improvement and helps countries most dependent on foreign financing such as Brazil and India, according to Denise Simon, an emerging-market fixed income manager in New York at Lazard Asset Management, which oversees $147 billion of assets.

“Continued stimulus in the U.S. means support to U.S. growth, with rippling effects in terms of general demand for goods,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodity analyst in Oslo at SEB AB. “The Fed decision is positive for continued capital flows to emerging markets. More capital to emerging markets means better growth prospects and means stronger commodity demand.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 16 Bearish: 5 Hold: 5
Copper survey results: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 8 Hold: 8
Corn survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 11 Hold: 5
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 16 Bearish: 9 Hold: 4
Wheat survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 8 Hold: 7
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 8 Hold: 1
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 8 Hold: 2
White sugar premium results: Widen: 6 Narrow: 5 Neutral: 4

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