COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)
General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged. The fundamentals are considered bullish. Worries are that there will not be enough Cocoa beans available for processing for end of the year holiday demand. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. The lack of offer comes at a time when rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Temperatures are moderate. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.369 million bags. LIFFE stocks are now 6,016 standard delivery units, 169 large delivery units, and 1 bulk delivery unit.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2600, 2565, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 December. Support is at 1690, 1670, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 December.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures closed higher once again in response to forecasts for heavy rains this weekend and into next week that could hurt quality for the crop in open bolls. USDA showed that 37% of the crop had open bolls in the Monday report, and that number has only increased. It is possible for a couple of inches of rain to fall from Texas to the east. Georgia could get double that amount or even more. US crop conditions right now are generally good with moderating temperatures and rains in the forecast for Texas this week and dry weather in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast. But, the crop remains well behind the normal pace due to delayed planting in the spring. The weather forecasts and the crop progress and condition reports offer no concerns for production at this time. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India and Pakistan, and harvest should be starting there. Cotton in China is seeing rain that could hurt quality.
Overnight News: The Delta will see some storms on Friday and Southeast will see showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see scattered showers again at the end of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 81.55 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.20, 83.70, and 83.55 December, with resistance of 85.80, 86.25, and 86.55 December.
Next page: Orange juice, Coffee and Sugar
FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)
General Comments: Futures closed lower again on follow through selling as tropical storms seen in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico showed no signs of moving to Florida. The historical peak of the season has just passed. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida as these storms move away and nothing else seems to be forming right now that might move into the state and its citrus production areas. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are in the forecast for today and late in the weekend.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 124.00, 122.50, and 121.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 131.00, and 132.00 November.
COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in reaction to the FED announcements. The FED is leaving the tapering program in place, and this caused the Dollar to move lower and for the Real to trade firmer. Speculators keep selling on ideas of improving weather in Brazil. Some forecasts for rains to develop by the end of this week in growing areas of Brazil were negative because it will create good flowering conditions for the next crop. The current crop harvest has proceeded well under mostly dry conditions until recently. Coffee is available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. New crop is now being offered. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at steady differentials after forcing them lower in the last few weeks. Buyers are said to be well covered and have been buying in Colombia and Peru as well as Asia. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but rust will cut production this year. In addition, Hurricane Ingrid will bring some very big rains to central Mexico this week and could damage crops. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Vietnam is seeing some flooding rains in production areas this week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.776 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.57 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers today and Sunday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Big rains are likely in central and south central Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE certified stocks are 7,489 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 November. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1720, 1735, and 1750 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 139.00, 140.50, and 142.50 December.
SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)
General Comments: Futures were higher on a stronger Brazilian Real. Some selling was noted due to weaker Crude Oil and other petroleum futures. Futures are now back at the upper end of the trading range. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same. Differentials there have been moving lower in the last few weeks, but are more stable now. Brazil and India are selling as well. Price appears to be in a longer term trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures. USDA has traded 56,711 short tons of Sugar to refiners in an effort to move defaulted loan supplies.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 March, and resistance is at 1780, 1810, and 1820 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 479.00, and 475.00 December, and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 495.00 December.
