Cocoa climbs on worries holiday demand will outstrip supply


General Comments: Futures closed lower again on follow through selling as tropical storms seen in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico showed no signs of moving to Florida. The historical peak of the season has just passed. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida as these storms move away and nothing else seems to be forming right now that might move into the state and its citrus production areas. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are in the forecast for today and late in the weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 124.00, 122.50, and 121.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 131.00, and 132.00 November.


General Comments: Futures were a little higher in reaction to the FED announcements. The FED is leaving the tapering program in place, and this caused the Dollar to move lower and for the Real to trade firmer. Speculators keep selling on ideas of improving weather in Brazil. Some forecasts for rains to develop by the end of this week in growing areas of Brazil were negative because it will create good flowering conditions for the next crop. The current crop harvest has proceeded well under mostly dry conditions until recently. Coffee is available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. New crop is now being offered. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at steady differentials after forcing them lower in the last few weeks. Buyers are said to be well covered and have been buying in Colombia and Peru as well as Asia. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but rust will cut production this year. In addition, Hurricane Ingrid will bring some very big rains to central Mexico this week and could damage crops. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Vietnam is seeing some flooding rains in production areas this week.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.776 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.57 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers today and Sunday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Big rains are likely in central and south central Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE certified stocks are 7,489 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 November. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1720, 1735, and 1750 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 139.00, 140.50, and 142.50 December.


General Comments: Futures were higher on a stronger Brazilian Real. Some selling was noted due to weaker Crude Oil and other petroleum futures. Futures are now back at the upper end of the trading range. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same. Differentials there have been moving lower in the last few weeks, but are more stable now. Brazil and India are selling as well. Price appears to be in a longer term trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures. USDA has traded 56,711 short tons of Sugar to refiners in an effort to move defaulted loan supplies.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 March, and resistance is at 1780, 1810, and 1820 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 479.00, and 475.00 December, and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 495.00 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at Learn even more on our website at

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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