Sugar rises on strengthening Brazilian real

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower again on flow through selling as tropical storms seen in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico showed no signs of moving to Florida. The historical peak of the season has just passed. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida as these storms move away and nothing else seems to be forming right now. One storm in the Gulf of Mexico could bring some big rains to the northern half of Florida, but no damage is expected and no big winds are expected. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are in the forecast for today and late in the weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were little changed as traders waited for the FED announcements. The FED is leaving the tapering program in place, and this caused the Dollar to move sharply lower and for the Real to rally. It is possible that Coffee prices rally a little bit today. Speculators keep selling on ideas of improving weather in Brazil. Some forecasts for rains to develop by the end of this week in growing areas of Brazil were negative because it will create good flowering conditions for the next crop. The current crop harvest has proceeded well under mostly dry conditions until recently. Coffee is available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. New crop is now being offered. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at steady differentials after forcing them lower in the last few weeks. Buyers are said to be well covered and have been buying in Colombia and Peru as well as Asia. Current crop development is still good this year in most production áreas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but rust will cut production this year. In addition, Hurricane Ingrid will bring some very big rains to central Mexico this week and could damage crops. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Vietnam is seeing some flooding rains in production areas this week.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.777 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.01 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers today and Sunday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Big rains are likely in central and south central Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 119.00, 121.00, and 122.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1620 November. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1720, 1735, and 1750 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 139.00, 140.50, and 142.50 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged. The market is not breaking as the fundamentals are considered bullish. Worries that there will not be enough Cocoa beans available for processing for end of the year holiday demand have supported the market overall. Reports from Ivory Coast indicate that beans are hard to find and that some arrivals at ports are being rejected as either too small or moldy. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. The lack of offer comes at a time when rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Temperatures are moderate. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.376 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2600, 2565, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1770 December. Support is at 1700, 1690, and 1670 December, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 December.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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