U.S. bonds could move into a correction: Elliott Wave

I hate to say this again, but major pairs on the FX market place still have very unclear price action and no direction at all on the intra-day basis. It’s probably the “calm before the storm” ahead of one of the most highly anticipated FOMC press conference of the last few years, when Bernanke could announce tapering.  Statement will be out at 18:00GMT and press conference will be scheduled 30 minutes later. So until then, we may not see a lot of price action today. However, when any changes regarding the monetary policy will be announced, then expect a huge impact on USD pairs, particularly USD/JPY which has a strong relationship with U.S. yields.  U.S. bonds will move strongly today, and it will be interesting to see in which direction they go if the Fed starts tapering. Keep in mind that markets often react the opposite of what you would normally expect. During the QE period, interestingly, bonds were falling/yields rising. So if they will lower QE now, then this could cause the opposite reaction; higher U.S. bonds in this particular example. That is what we called “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario.

Somehow, I would not be surprised by higher U.S. bonds and reason is the following count on 30-year U.S. bond daily chart where I see five waves down in wave III with ending diagonal at the bottom that is pointing for higher prices. A daily close above 132.20 wave 4) extreme would be a bullish signal. If this count would prove correct, then U.S. yields will fall, which will cause a bearish trend on USD/JPY! For now nothing is confirmed, especially not ahead of FOMC when anything is possible. Bonds could also continue lower if monetary policy remains unchanged, that’s why we need a close above 132.20 to confirm any larger reversal.

30-Year U.S. Bonds Daily

About the Author

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com. EW-Forecast.com provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com/

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