Coffee drops on reports of big inventories


General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower as tropical storms seen in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico showed no signs of moving to Florida. The historical peak of the season has just passed. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida as these storms move away and nothing else seems to be forming right now. One storm in the Gulf of Mexico could bring some big rains to the northern half of Florida, but no damage is expected and no big winds are expected. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but shows are in the forecast for the balance of the week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 121.00 November. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 122.50 November, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.


General Comments: Futures were lower on follow through selling. The crop there in India expected to be large and some will be exported. Futures are now falling back from the upper end of the trading range. Demand has improved, but there is plenty of Sugar to buy. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. Differentials there have been moving lower in the last few weeks, but are more stable now. Brazil and India are selling as well. Price appear to be in a longer term trading range for now due to soild demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate tempertures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 March, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1810 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 473.00 December. Support is at 479.00, 475.00, and 470.00 December, and resistance is at 487.00, 490.00, and 494.00 December.


General Comments: Futures closed lower on long liquidation after failing to make new highs again. Worries that there will not be enough Cocoa beans available for processing for end of the year holiday demand have supported the market overall. Reports from Ivory Coast indicate that beans are hard to find and that some arrivals at ports are being rejected as either too small or moldy. Cocoa is between crops, and offers are light. The lack of offer comes at a time when rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, but that already harvested beans can get moldy due in part to producer holding patterns and poor storage facilities. Ideas are that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.394 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 December. Support is at 2600, 2565, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1770 December. Support is at 1700, 1690, and 1670 December, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 2000 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at Learn even more on our website at

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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