Cocoa rises as certified stocks dwindle

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on the data released by USDA yesterday that showed poor yields from harvested oranges. The report implies that Oranges are small and do not have enough juice. The poor quality of the crop is most likely due to earlier drought conditions and the greening disease. A hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic was not a force in the price action today.. The storm is not going to come anywhere close to Florida, but it gave traders a reason to buy, anyway. The storm shows that the conditions in the Atlantic might be improving. The historical peak of the season has just passed. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but production areas will turn warmer again this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 137.50, 134.00, and 131.00 November, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 144.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading. There was talk that current dry weather in Brazil could hurt the flowering for the next crop, but some forecasts expect the rains to develop by the end of this month. Most traders are still bearish longer term on big world supplies, but the bears have been unable to force new lows and the market action appears to be more like at least a short term bottom. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at weaker differentials. Buyers are said to be well covered. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.783 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.15 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and some showers next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00 and 127.00 December. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00, and 127.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1730, and 1720 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 134.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.

SUGAR  (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures traders higher on news that USDA will trade Sugar for import credits in another effort to reduce supplies and keep the market afloat. The program will help remove supplies from the market and cut imports, but is not considered a final solution. USDA is trying to avoid taking a lot of Sugar into its hands once the loans from the government programs expire at the end of the month. But, there will still be a lot of Sugar around, as USDA showed in its reports yesterday. Thailand and India expect more production this year, and both countries are actively offering their supplies into the world market. Demand for ethanol has been good. Chinese demand has been soft, but Middle East demand is good. Price appears to be in a trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1780 March. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 March, and resistance is at 1780, 1810, and 1840 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 488.00, 486.00, and 479.00 December, and resistance is at 496.00, 501.00, and 505.00 December.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus