Oil focus turns to supply disruption consequences as Syria fades

 

  • Growing non-OPEC liquid fuels production contributes to a decline in the call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks (world consumption less non-OPEC production and OPEC non-crude oil production) falling from an average 30.0 million bbl/d in 2013 to 29.4 million bbl/d in 2014.
  • EIA projects global consumption to grow by 1.1 million bbl/d in 2013 and by another 1.2 million bbl/d in 2014, with China, the Middle East, Central and South America, and other countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) accounting for essentially all consumption growth. Projected OECD liquid fuels consumption declines by 0.2 million bbl/d in both 2013 and 2014. The declines in OECD consumption are largely due to lower consumption in Europe and Japan.
  • Non-OECD Asia, particularly China, is the leading contributor to projected global consumption growth. EIA estimates that liquid fuels consumption in China will increase by 420,000 bbl/d in 2013 and by a further 430,000 bbl/d in 2014, compared with average annual growth of about 510,000 bbl/d from 2003 through 2012.
  • EIA estimates that OECD commercial oil inventories at the end of 2012 totaled 2.65 billion barrels, equivalent to 57.7 days of supply. OECD oil inventories are projected to end 2013 at 2.66 billion barrels (57.3 days of supply) and end 2014 at 2.69 billion barrels (58.1 days of supply).
  • EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to rise from an average of 6.5 million bbl/d in 2012 to 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013 and 8.4 million bbl/d in 2014. The continued focus on drilling in tight oil plays in the onshore Williston, Western Gulf, and Permian basins is expected to account for the bulk of forecast production growth over the next two years. Offshore production from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to average 1.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2014.
  • Since reaching 12.5 million bbl/d in 2005, total U.S. liquid fuel net imports, including crude oil and petroleum products, have been falling. Total net imports fell to 7.4 million bbl/d in 2012, and EIA expects net imports to continue declining to an average of 5.4 million bbl/d by 2014. Similarly, the share of total U.S. consumption met by liquid fuel net imports peaked at more than 60% in 2005 and fell to an average of 40% in 2012. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 29% in 2014, which would be the lowest level since 1985.
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