I’m here to tell you with flawless guarantee that nothing good can sustain in this market unless this HGX chart decides to get off the mat. It’s not horrendous and there’s no technical damage yet to the bigger picture bull market but we are one distribution day away from that condition. What this chart really tells us is we’ve either completed an intermediate term correction or we could have also completed wave 1 down of a bigger 3rd wave. In bull markets that 3rd of a 3rd never seems to materialize but as I said we are one misstep away from the cat getting out of the bag.
Looking at Europe, the cat really is scratching the bag is close to tweaking his way out. With all this concern about the war we never got the chance to talk about the debt ceiling debate which we are told will have to be raised sometime in October. Do you think if we hit Syria and that warship of China’s sitting near the Mediterranean with it’s 1000 marines (it’s a report I found on the Debkafile site) deploys the debt ceiling will need to get raised in any event?
Then you have the oil market which still tests our patience but should really test the May 2011 high. It has the chance to breakthrough and really spike but won’t do it unless the stock market stays elevated. This has the potential to be the most important week since the financial crisis in 2008. I’m not saying you’ll get the same result but the implications of everything floating around has the potential to become world history and could impact our lives for years to come. At this stage of the game, markets have very high risk for correction not only because of the potential for war, but for the combination of the geopolitical situation and the cycles as we’ve discussed.
It’s been a long time for me being in the basement but on Wednesday at noon eastern time I make my return to the Market Technicians Association with an all new webinar. Here’s the link, it’s free and you are invited. http://go.mta.org/lobby091113