Cotton gains on strong export sales, U.S. crop development

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in all markets. London was higher as deliverable supplies are falling. The cash market seemed relatively quiet. Most Brazil Coffee producers are not offering much right now after the Real moved higher last week. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at weaker differentials. Buyers are said to be well covered. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 2.784 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.79 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 134.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on reports in moderate volume trading. There is not much on offer in the cash market for now. Processors in Brazil remain more interested in Ethanol production. There is good weather for Sugar production in India, and the crop is expected to be big there. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year, and both countries are actively offering their supplies into the world market. Demand for ethanol has been good. Chinese demand has been soft, but Middle East demand is good. Price appears to be in a trading range for now due to solid demand and big production. Short term trends are now sideways.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures. China produced 137,000 tons of Sugar in July, up 15.1% from last year. Calendar year to date production is now 11.05 million tons, up 14.8% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1745 and 1780 March. Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1680 March, and resistance is at 1750, 1765, and 1780 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 494.00 December. Support is at 479.00, 475.00, and 471.00 December, and resistance is at 485.00, 488.00, and 494.00 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through chart based buying. There is not much offer now as West Africa is between crops. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.607 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2610 and 2720 December. Support is at 2545, 2525, and 2505 December, with resistance at 2590, 2605, and 2620 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1710 and 1770 December. Support is at 1670, 1660, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1710, 1740, and 1770 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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