Sugar falls as world production grows

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher. It is the midpoint of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Oranges production. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life as some of the conditions for tropical development have improved, but there are no threats showing anywhere right now, or at least not moving into Florida. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but production áreas will turn warmer again this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 129.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 129.00, 126.00, and 125.50 November, with resistance at 137.00, 139.00, and 140.00 November.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower in all markets as traders noted little interest. London was higher as deliverable supplies are falling. The cash market seemed relatively quiet. Most Brazil Coffee producers apparently plan to move Coffee into the support programs and hope for higher prices, and that has cut offers to the market. Differentials overall appear weak for Arabica. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at weaker differentials. Markets are very quiet, with little buyer interest seen and little selling interest reported. Buyers are said to be well covered. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.784 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.35 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1750, and 1730 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be chart based buying. There was no real news out there to support a big rally yesterday. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Ghana has been getting rains, too. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.607 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2455, 2405, and 2390 December, with resistance at 2505, 2525, and 2545 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1705 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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