Coffee climbs as supplies start to dry up

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJX13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower and showed signs of breaking down from the recent trading range. It is the midpoint of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or orange production as has been the case for the entire season until now. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life as some of the conditions for tropical development have improved, but there are no threats showing anywhere right now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing below normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but production areas will turn warmer again this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 129.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 129.00, 126.00, and 125.50 November, with resistance at 137.00, 139.00, and 140.00 November.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on reports of new demand from Iraq and Syria. Iraq has been buying Sugar all along, but Syria is having a tough time getting offers. There is a lot of Sugar in the world, but not much on offer in the cash market for now. The buying yesterday seemed more chart based in nature and less fundamental based. The Brazilian Real remains relatively weak and traders think Brazil will offer more for export. However, processors there remain more interested in Ethanol production as it pays better. Traders are also noting good weather for Sugar production in India, and the crop is expected to be big there. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year, and Thailand is offering. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time. Chinese demand has been soft, but Middle East demand appears to be relatively good. Price appear to be in a trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures Short term trends are now sideways.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1625, 1610, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1685 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 465.00 October, and resistance is at 481.00, 486.00, and 488.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower as traders noted better rains in West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, and these ideas pushed many speculators to sell again yesterday. Price trends turned down with the selling late last week. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Ghana has been getting rains, too. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.607 million bags. The ICCO estimates a production surplus of 52,000 tons this year, from 60,000 tons last estimate.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2405, 2390, and 2365 December, with resistance at 2455, 2505, and 2525 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1610, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1705 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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