Coffee sees selling interest on weaker Brazilian real

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower and the market seems to be forming a short term trading range, and might try to complete a top. Traders are still talking about the smaller crop sizes estimated by Steger and Dreyfus last week. It is the high point of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Oranges production, although the atmosphere for Hurricanes might start to improve soon. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life as some of the wind shear and dry pools in the atmosphere in the Atlantic are forecast to abate. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.50, and 130.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on a weaker Real and despite forecasts for colder weather in Brazil. It might not get cold enough to do more damage, but the colder weather could at least slow the harvest pace again. UNICA noted that production increased during the first half of the month amid very good harvest and processing weather. Mills remain more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. However, there have been concerns raised about Indian production in the last week due to heavier monsoon rains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures Short term trends are now sideways.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1625, 1610, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1665, 1685, and 1700 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 478.00 and 469.00 October. Support is at 477.00, 474.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 486.00, 488.00, and 492.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on reports of more showers and rains in West Africa. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and most of these seem to be in central and northern areas. No general rains are in the forecast. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but precipitation is improving. Temperatures are moderate. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.6689million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2405 December, with resistance at 2480, 2505, and 2525 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1615, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1705 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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