General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York and Sao Paulo and little changed in London. A weaker real created new speculative selling interest. There was talk of increased selling from producers in Brazil, but little seemed to appear in futures. Most Coffee producers apparently plan to move Coffee into the support programs and hope for higher prices, and that has cut offers to the market. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Markets for new crop in most areas are very quiet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.802 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.35 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions except for a few showers today. Temperatures will average near to above normal after a cold day today. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.50 and 111.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1750 November. Support is at 1760, 1735, and 1730 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 142.00, 145.50, and 148.50 December.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in quiet trading. Futures traded both sides of the market as traders weighed slow crop development against improving conditions and also the macro economic news that showed a slowly improving economy. The market had been moving sharply lower in response to US and Indian production estimates, but is trying to find a base now as it has hit some support areas on the charts. Buyers have pulled away from the market and will wait for some kind of bottom to form before buying in a big way. But, the bottom pickers gave it a try yesterday. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Cotton areas is not really improving right now in that country. However, some showers are in the forecast to provide some help. Weather is turning hot in the US again, too. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry and warm. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India. Trends are down, but some short term recovery is possible given the magnitude of the down move seen last week.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see a few showers. Temperatures will average above to much above normal in the Delta and mostly above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.82 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.025 million bales, from 0.026 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8300 October. Support is at 83.80, 83.55, and 82.90 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 88.00 October.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower and the market seems to be forming a short term trading range, and might try to complete a top. Traders are still talking about the smaller crop sizes estimated by Steger and Dreyfus last week. It is the high point of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Oranges production, although the atmosphere for Hurricanes might start to improve soon. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life as some of the wind shear and dry pools in the atmosphere in the Atlantic are forecast to abate. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.50, and 130.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower on a weaker Real and despite forecasts for colder weather in Brazil. It might not get cold enough to do more damage, but the colder weather could at least slow the harvest pace again. UNICA noted that production increased during the first half of the month amid very good harvest and processing weather. Mills remain more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. However, there have been concerns raised about Indian production in the last week due to heavier monsoon rains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures Short term trends are now sideways.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1625, 1610, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1665, 1685, and 1700 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 478.00 and 469.00 October. Support is at 477.00, 474.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 486.00, 488.00, and 492.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower on reports of more showers and rains in West Africa. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and most of these seem to be in central and northern areas. No general rains are in the forecast. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but precipitation is improving. Temperatures are moderate. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.6689million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2405 December, with resistance at 2480, 2505, and 2525 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1615, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1705 December.