Coffee sees selling interest on weaker Brazilian real

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York and Sao Paulo and little changed in London. A weaker real created new speculative selling interest. There was talk of increased selling from producers in Brazil, but little seemed to appear in futures. Most Coffee producers apparently plan to move Coffee into the support programs and hope for higher prices, and that has cut offers to the market. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Markets for new crop in most areas are very quiet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.802 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.35 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions except for a few showers today. Temperatures will average near to above normal after a cold day today. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.50 and 111.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1750 November. Support is at 1760, 1735, and 1730 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 142.00, 145.50, and 148.50 December.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in quiet trading. Futures traded both sides of the market as traders weighed slow crop development against improving conditions and also the macro economic news that showed a slowly improving economy. The market had been moving sharply lower in response to US and Indian production estimates, but is trying to find a base now as it has hit some support areas on the charts. Buyers have pulled away from the market and will wait for some kind of bottom to form before buying in a big way. But, the bottom pickers gave it a try yesterday. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Cotton areas is not really improving right now in that country. However, some showers are in the forecast to provide some help. Weather is turning hot in the US again, too. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry and warm. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India. Trends are down, but some short term recovery is possible given the magnitude of the down move seen last week.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see a few showers. Temperatures will average above to much above normal in the Delta and mostly above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.82 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.025 million bales, from 0.026 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8300 October. Support is at 83.80, 83.55, and 82.90 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 88.00 October.

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