Orange juice climbs on smaller production estimates

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCZ13)

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and Sao Paulo with London closed. There were some forecasts for cold weather to move into Coffee areas of Brazil again to provide some support. Ideas of increased offers from Brazil took a back seat to the action as the real was somewhat stronger yesterday. Most Coffee producers apparently plan to move Coffee into the support programs and hope for higher prices. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.800 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.26 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions except for a few showers today and Wednesday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.50 and 111.00 December. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1750 November. Support is at 1760, 1735, and 1730 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on forecasts for colder weather in Brazil. It might not get cold enough to do more damage, but the colder weather could at least slow the harvest pace again. Mills remain more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Some of the rally came as the Real showed some strength yesterday. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. However, there have been concerns raised about Indian production in the last week due to heavier monsoon rains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures Short term trends are now sideways.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1625, and 1610 October, and resistance is at 1685, 1700, and 1715 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 478.00 and 469.00 October. Support is at 478.00, 474.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 488.00, 492.00, and 495.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on reports of more dry weather in West Africa. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and most of these seem to be in northern areas. No general rains are in the forecast. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but precipitation is improving. Temperatures are moderate. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.668 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2405 December, with resistance at 2505, 2525, and 2545 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1615, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1705 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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