COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures closed mixed in consolidation trading. The market had been moving sharply lower in response to U.S. and Indian production estimates, but might try to find a base now as it has hit some support areas on the charts. Buyers have pulled away from the market and will wait for some kind of bottom to form before buying in a big way. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India. Trends are down, but some short term recovery is possible given the magnitude of the down move seen last week.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.31 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.028 million bales, from 0.034 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8300 October. Support is at 83.80, 83.55, and 82.90 October, with resistance of 85.20, 86.00, and 86.50 October.
FCOJ(NYBOT:OJU13)
General Comments: Futures closed lower on long liquidation before the weekend. Short term trends are up and it is the high point of the hurricane season. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Orange production. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life, but no real threats. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is still seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development, but at least some systems that could become tropical are starting to appear. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.
Next page: COffee, Sugar and Cocoa
Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
