Natural gas pops higher on storage miss

Daily Market Analysis for Friday, 08/23/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/12/2013 @ 106.96. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/12/2013 @ 107.74. Upside Targets = 111.43 – 113.15.
  • Double inside VRCB formation generated on Thursday.
    • October Brent Crude once again traded within a very narrow trading range on Thursday following some early week volatility as it closed just below the $110 threshold.
    • Brent is exuding the type of price action that will likely propel another upward movement in the coming trading sessions as the market looks to make new highs during the second half of the year and tracks the above listed upside price targets.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.37
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (October ‘13): (NYMEX:CLV13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/20/2013 @ 106.28. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/20/2013 @ 105.11. Downside Targets = 103.24 – 102.47.
  • Inside compression day generated on Thursday. Possible partial confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 105.36. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 105.36 or higher.
    • October WTI Crude Oil traded to within just $0.25 of the first downside price target over the past few trading sessions before picking up a late day rally to finish above $105 and in the upper 85% of the daily trading range.
    • WTI should see some follow through bullish price action on Friday heading into the weekend after it finds support just above $104.50 and likely make a run at new contract highs as mentioned in my report from earlier this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.97
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.92
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (September ‘13): (NYMEX:NGU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/12/2013 @ 3.327. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/14/2013 @ 3.342. Upside Targets = 3.4613.534
  • New highs made on the current move Thursday @ 3.559.
    • September Natural Gas received a positive pop higher on Thursday following a big miss in storage expectations helping the market work toward filling the close gap left from last month.
    • Natural gas may see a bit of profit taking going into the weekend on Friday but as I alluded to in Wednesday afternoon’s analysis, this move will likely continue higher into next week before reaching IT resistance near $3.65.
  • Projected Daily Range: .095
  • Projected Weekly Range: .215
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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