General Comments: Futures closed lower on weakness in the real against the U.S. dollar and on good weather for harvest in Brazil. The real keeps sinking and made new lows for the move against the U.S. dollar yesterday, and Sugar futures made new lows for the move. Brazil production could improve as the weather gets better. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions into the weekend. Mills remain more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1630, 1590, and 1580 October. Support is at 1610, 1595, and 1580 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1685, and 1700 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 478.00 and 469.00 October. Support is at 478.00, 474.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 488.00, 492.00, and 495.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower for the second day on production estimates from India. The country expects to produce 37.2 million bales of Cotton in 2013-14, much higher than had been expected by about everyone. USDA is talking about much more production here in the US as well, and that added to the selling pressure. Buyers have pulled away from the market and will wait for some kind of bottom to form before buying in a big way. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and near to below normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 84.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.037 million bales, from 0.040 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 81,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 10,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8300 October. Support is at 84.85, 84.00, and 83.55 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 88.00 October.
Next page: Orange juice, Coffee and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed higher on chart based buying. Short term trends are up and it is the high point of the hurricane season. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Oranges production. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life with the systems that formed last week. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is still seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development, but at least some systems that could become tropical are starting to appear. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 141.00 and 148.00 September. Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were lower again as the Real moved much lower against the US Dollar. Ideas of increased offers from Brazil were helped by the Real weakness, although there were no real reports of big selling. Brazil producers are selling in other markets and should be selling a lot of Coffee, too. The Real is moving to new lows and this has decreased the effectiveness of the Brazil government program for world markets as the support is made in Rais. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.793 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.95 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 116.50 and 111.00 December. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1750 November. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1770 November, and resistance is at 1845, 1855, and 1865 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and made a potential top on the charts. Talk of improved rains in West Africa caused the increased selling interest. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but precipitation is improving. Temperatures are moderate. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.682 million bags. ICE said that 13 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 330 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2430, 2390, and 2360 December, with resistance at 2455, 2475, and 2505 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1615, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 December.
The real keeps sinking and made new lows for the move against the U.S. dollar yesterday, and Sugar futures made new lows for the move. Brazil production could improve as the weather gets better.