Coffee falls as Brazilian real weakens against U.S. dollar

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were sharply lower as the real moved much lower against the U.S. dollar. Ideas of increased offers from Brazil were helped by the real weakness, although there were no real reports of big selling. The real is moving to new lows and this has decreased the effectiveness of the Brazil government program for world markets as the support is made in Rais. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.794 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.16 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 112.00 September. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 109.00 September, and resistance is at 117.00, 120.00, and 123.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1820 September. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1900, 1910, and 1940 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are cown with objectives of 132.00 and 122.00 September. Support is at 138.00, 135.00, and 132.00 September, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 150.00 September.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower to limit down on production estimates from India. The country expects to produce 37.2 million bales of Cotton in 2013-14, much higher tan had been expected by about everyone. After the close USDA released its crop reports that showed overall improvement in crop condition, and that added to the selling pressure. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas lost credibility with the USDFA data. Other parts of the world show more mixed production conditions. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron áreas is not really improvng right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year has made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and near to below normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 84.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.041 million bales, from 0.042 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 90.75, and 90.10 October, with resistance of 94.20, 94.80, and 95.60 October.

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