General Comments: Futures closed higher on news that Steger and Dreyfus had predicted smaller orange crop production this year. Some short covering was seen as a couple of small tropical systems were detected in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Orange production. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life with the systems that formed last week. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is still seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development, but at least some systems that could become tropical are starting to appear. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Wire reports indicate that Steger has estimated Florida Oranges production at 130 million boxes and that Dreyfus has estimated production at 132 million boxes.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 141.00 and 148.00 September. Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 137.00, 140.00, and 142.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower, but traded inside Friday's range. There was not a lot of news out there for traders, although after the close USDA released its crop reports that showed overall improvement in crop condition. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas kept buyers at the table. The wet weather in the Southeast and still very dry conditions in Texas have caused analysts to start to drop estimates even more tan the USDA estimates last week, and the USDA estimates were below the trade estimates before the reports. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and near to below normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 88.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.041 million bales, from 0.042 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 90.75, and 90.10 October, with resistance of 94.20, 94.80, and 95.60 October.
Next page: Cotton, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures were lower as the Real moved lower against the US Dollar. The Real is moving to new lows and this has decreased the effectiveness of the Brazil government program for world markets as the support is made in Rais. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers for both the old crop and the new crop. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but none of the new crop is being offered yet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil, but there was some rain to slow things down last week. Prices for Arabica are in a range.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.786 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.82 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 September, and resistance is at 123.00, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1820 September. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1900, 1910, and 1940 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 139.00, and 138.00 September, and resistance is at 147.00, 150.00, and 151.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower on weakness in the Real against the US Dollar and on forecasts for better weather this week for harvest in Brazil. The Real keeps sinking and made new lows for the move against the US Dollar yesterday. Brazil production has been down a bit lately due to bad harvest weather, but could still improve if the weather gets better soon. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions into the weekend. Mills remain more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago in Brazil, but the country still should have a lot to sell. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1635, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1700, 1735, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 478.00, and 474.00 October, and resistance is at 495.00, 500.00, and 503.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed higher and made new highs for the move. Prices closed at the highest level for this year on West Africa worries. Dry weather in West Africa could have hurt production and remains the primary fundamental support. There is talk that demand might improve after economic data in Europe and the US proved better than expectations. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but precipitation is improving. Temperatures are moderate. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean fewer offers at the end of the calendar year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.751 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.28 million tons, from 1.26 million last year. ICE said that 12 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 317 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2435, and 2390 December, with resistance at 2520, 2555, and 2585 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1625, and 1615 December, with resistance at 1670, 1685, and 1720 December.