Orange juice rallies on forecasts of smaller crop

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on news that Steger and Dreyfus had predicted smaller orange crop production this year. Some short covering was seen as a couple of small tropical systems were detected in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or Orange production. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life with the systems that formed last week. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is still seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development, but at least some systems that could become tropical are starting to appear. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Wire reports indicate that Steger has estimated Florida Oranges production at 130 million boxes and that Dreyfus has estimated production at 132 million boxes.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 141.00 and 148.00 September. Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 137.00, 140.00, and 142.00 September.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower, but traded inside Friday's range. There was not a lot of news out there for traders, although after the close USDA released its crop reports that showed overall improvement in crop condition. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas kept buyers at the table. The wet weather in the Southeast and still very dry conditions in Texas have caused analysts to start to drop estimates even more tan the USDA estimates last week, and the USDA estimates were below the trade estimates before the reports. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and near to below normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 88.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.041 million bales, from 0.042 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 90.75, and 90.10 October, with resistance of 94.20, 94.80, and 95.60 October.

Next page: Cotton, Sugar and Cocoa

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