Cotton finds buyers as weather threatens production

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were lower as the real moved lower against the US Dollar, but held support due to the government support program for Brazil producers. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest, but not much of the new crop is being offered yet. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil, but there was some rain to slow things down last week. Prices for Arabica are in a range.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.779 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.29 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 115.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 130.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1885, and 1860 September, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 141.00, and 138.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on weakness in the Real against the US Dollar and on forecasts for better weather this week for harvest in Brazil. Brazil production has been down a bit lately due to bad harvest weather, but could still improve if the weather gets better soon. However, mills have been more interested in producing ethanol rather than Sugar due to price. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago in Brazil, but the country still should have a lot to sell. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures for the most part, but frosts and some freezing temperatures are possible in the next couple of days.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1635 October, and resistance is at 1735, 1750, and 1790 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 514.00 October. Support is at 500.00, 494.00, and 491.00 October, and resistance is at 508.00, 511.00, and 514.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCZ13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading. Dry weather in West Africa could have hurt production and remains the primary fundamental support. However, there was talk that demand might improve after economic data in Europe and the US proved better than expectations. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but showers are starting to pick up again. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean less offer at the end of the calendar year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.776 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.28 million tons, from 1.26 million last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2435, and 2390 December, with resistance at 2520, 2555, and 2585 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1645, 1625, and 1615 December, with resistance at 1670, 1685, and 1720 December.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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