Cocoa falls as western Africa weather improves

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas that weather might be getting better in western Africa. Dry weather in West Africa could have hurt production and remains the primary fundamental support. However, there was talk that demand might improve after economic data in Europe and the US proved better than expectations. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but showers are starting to pick up again. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean fewer offers at the end of the calendar year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.792 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2490, 2500, and 2515 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1610, 1600, and 1580 September, with resistance at 1670, 1685, and 1705 September.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on ideas of les production. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas kept buyers at the table. Cotton production was estimated at 13.052 million bales last month by USDA, but the wet weather in the Southeast and still very dry conditions in Texas have caused analysts to start to drop estimates even more, and the USDA estimates were below the trade estimates before the reports. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Corron áreas is not really improvng right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year has made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and stormsd through this weekend in eastern areas. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe a shower in the north. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 87.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.043 million bales, from 0.044 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 92.80 October. Support is at 90.70, 90.10, and 89.10 October, with resistance of 92.00, 92.40, and 93.00 October.

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