Sugar rises as weather turns wet and cold for harvest

SUGAR  (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on follow through buying on wet and cold weather in the forecast for harvest areas later this week. Brazil production has been down a bit lately due to bad harvest weather, but could still improve if the weather gets better soon. However, mills have been more interested in producing ethanol rather than sugar due to price. And, the forecasts for the cold and wet weather will do nothing to enhance the harvest and processing. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago, and there are forecasts for more wet and cool weather is coming later this week. However, most forecasts call for temperatures to stay above freezing. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures for the most part, but frosts and some freezing temperatures are possible in the next couple of days.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1750, 1770, and 1800 October. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1635 October, and resistance is at 1735, 1750, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 514.00 October. Support is at 494.00, 491.00, and 484.00 October, and resistance is at 508.00, 511.00, and 514.00 October.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas aided in the buying. Cotton production was estimated at 13.052 million bales, well below trade estimates. Ending stocks estimates were cut slightly for the US and more significantly for the world. Some buying was tied to reports of very hot weather conditions in China and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and storms through this weekend in eastern areas. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe a shower in the north. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 87.32 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.049 million bales, from 0.051 million yesterday. USDA said that Upland Cotton export sales were 38,500 bales this year and 5,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 18,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 92.80 October. Support is at 90.70, 90.10, and 89.10 October, with resistance of 92.00, 92.40, and 93.00 October.

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