General Comments: Futures were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling that developed once futures were unable to make new highs for the move. Some talk of good harvest weather in Brazil, but cold and wet weather is in the forecast for later this week. London was once again the leader, this time to the downside. Differentials held firm on a lack of offer from producers. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Little new crop offers are seen. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good in Asia. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil, but cold and wet weather is possible in the next couple of days. Lows could be in the mid 30 degree area. Prices for Arabica are in a range.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.771 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.71 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal this week, then will moderate this weekend. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 115.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 130.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1980 September. Support is at 1900, 1885, and 1860 September, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 141.00, and 138.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through after USDA showed less tan expected production estimates in its reports yesterday. More talk of production problems in the Southeast, and especially Georgia, as well as in Texas aided in the buying. Cotton production was estimated at 13.052 million bales, well below trade estimates. Ending stocks estimates were cut slightly for the US and more significantly for the world. Some buying was tied to reports of very hot weather conditions in China and the weather in Corron areas is not really improving right now in that country. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Texas is dry, but will turn cooler later in the week. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and storms through this weekend in eastern areas. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe a shower in the north. Temperatures will average below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 87.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.049 million bales, from 0.051 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 92.80 October. Support is at 90.70, 90.10, and 89.10 October, with resistance of 92.40, 93.00, and 93.60 October.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower again on follow through selling by speculators as the weather remains mostly good in Florida and as there do not seem to be any tropical storms coming anytime soon. It has been hot, but trees are reported in mostly good condition. The most active part of the hurricane season is here, but there are no storms on the horizon. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers, but mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal this week and near normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 130.00, 125.00, and 124.00 September, with resistance at 133.00, 135.00, and 137.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying after UNICA showed less Sugarcane processed in Brazil due to wet and cold weather in the forecast for harvest areas later this week. Brazil production has been down a bit lately due to bad harvest weather, but could still improve if the weather gets better soon. However, mills have been more interested in producing ethanol Rather than Sugar due top rice. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago, and there is talk that more wet and cool weather is coming later this week. However, most forecasts call for temperatures to stay above freezing. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures for the most part, but frosts and some freezing temperatures are possible in the next couple of days.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1750, 1770, and 1800 October. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1635 October, and resistance is at 1735, 1750, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 514.00 October. Support is at 494.00, 491.00, and 484.00 October, and resistance is at 508.00, 511.00, and 514.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and short term trends might be turning down. Futures had been rallying on dry weather in West Africa that could have hurt production remains the primary fundamental support. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but showers are starting to pick up again. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean less offer at the end of the year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.796 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1220 September. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2445, 2500, and 2515 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1515 and 1490 September. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 September, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1685 September.