Coffee prices fall as farmers clear inventory before harvest

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower again on follow through selling by speculators as the weather remains mostly good in Florida and as there do not seem to be any tropical storms coming anytime soon. It has been hot, but trees are reported in mostly good condition. The most active part of the hurricane season is here, but there are no storms on the horizon. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers, but mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal this week and near normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 130.00, 125.00, and 124.00 September, with resistance at 133.00, 135.00, and 137.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying after UNICA showed less Sugarcane processed in Brazil due to wet and cold weather in the forecast for harvest areas later this week. Brazil production has been down a bit lately due to bad harvest weather, but could still improve if the weather gets better soon. However, mills have been more interested in producing ethanol Rather than Sugar due top rice. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago, and there is talk that more wet and cool weather is coming later this week. However, most forecasts call for temperatures to stay above freezing. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures for the most part, but frosts and some freezing temperatures are possible in the next couple of days.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1750, 1770, and 1800 October. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1635 October, and resistance is at 1735, 1750, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 514.00 October. Support is at 494.00, 491.00, and 484.00 October, and resistance is at 508.00, 511.00, and 514.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower and short term trends might be turning down. Futures had been rallying on dry weather in West Africa that could have hurt production remains the primary fundamental support. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry, but showers are starting to pick up again. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean less offer at the end of the year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.796 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1220 September. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2445, 2500, and 2515 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1515 and 1490 September. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 September, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1685 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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