Cocoa rises as weather turns dry in West Africa

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying tied to ideas that dry weather has returned to West Africa and could hurt production. There are reports of light rains in Ivory Coast, and the weather remains generally good in Africa, although more rain would be very beneficial. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. There is talk the drier weather could delay the harvest and the arrival of beans to ports. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean less offer at the end of the year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. LIFFE stocks are now 7,668 standard delivery units, 180 large delivery units, and 4 bulk delivery units.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply lower today at 4.604 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2450, 2390, and 2370 September, with resistance at 2500, 2515, and 2525 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1690 September. Support is at 1625, 1600, and 1580 September, with resistance at 1670, 1685, and 1705 September.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying tied to reports of very hot weather conditions in Chinese production areas that could hurt yields. China buys a lot of US Cotton and might need to buy more if production there is hurt. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Temperatures are warmer again in Texas, and it has turned dry again. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are good after some big rains earlier in the growing season nd rains in recent days as well. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. World production ideas are also high. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather today and tomorrow and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe a shower in the north. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 85.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.062 million bales, from 0.062 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60 and 92.80 October. Support is at 87.80, 87.45, and 87.00 October, with resistance of 89.65, 90.10, and 90.70 October.

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