General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading. The fundamentals do not support any major rallies in the market, and not much has changed in sugar. Some buying has been noted in reaction to the falling Indian rupee that makes it harder to believe that the country will export much. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Some Sugarcane was damaged in the freezes of a couple of weeks ago, but the total losses are not clear and Price action suggests were not enough to change things very much. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1635, and 1615 October, and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1715 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 479.00, and 473.00 October, and resistance is at 494.00, 496.00, and 499.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher on reports of very hot weather conditions in Chinese production areas that could hurt yields. China buys a lot of US Cotton and might need to buy more if production there is hurt. US crops remain behind the normal pace. The poor planting conditions early in the year have made the crop progress behind normal. Temperatures are warmer again in Texas, and it has turned dry again. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are good after some big rains earlier in the growing season and rains in recent days as well. Export sales have been on the weak side lately as the buy side of the market waits for prices to work lower. World production ideas are also high. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather today and tomorrow and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe a shower in the north. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 84.45 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.062 million bales, from 0.070 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 81,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 14,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year. USDA noted that the crop marketing year has now changed.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60 and 92.80 October. Support is at 87.80, 87.45, and 87.00 October, with resistance of 89.65, 90.10, and 90.70 October.
Next page: Orange Juice, Coffee and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be follow through speculative long liquidation. The most active part of the hurricane season is here, but there are no storms on the horizon. The bulk of the tropical Atlantic is seeing some very dry conditions and wind shear to prevent tropical storm development. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers, but mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 135.00 September. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, with resistance at 142.00, 145.00, and 147.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher after the Brazilian government announced its price support measures. The government will offer puts covering 3.0 million bags of coffee with a strike price of $150.55 per pound based on internal prices. It will then have a second tranche of support for another 3.0 million bags, and will directly buy this coffee at a Price near USD132.80. The market rallied in response to the news, and it is possible that a low has been found. However, upside potential should be limited as eventually this Coffee will have to move. Futures could test the 125.00 September area but might have trouble breaking that big resistance area, at least in the short term. It could eventually rally to the Brazil support Price, but probably not much more. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills start to clear inventories before the next harvest. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America and also appears to be mostly good now in Asia after some too dry or too wet weather at times earlier in the year. Central America crop areas remain too dry, but conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil. Prices are in a range.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.767 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.86 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1865, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1905, 1915, and 1950 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 135.00 September, and resistance is at 146.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher on follow through buying tied to ideas that dry weather has returned to West Africa and could hurt production. There are reports of light rains in Ivory Coast, and the weather remains generally good in Africa, although more rain would be very beneficial. Ghana and Ivory Coast are still too dry. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are stable, although some ideas are starting to drop again. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of its new crop Cocoa already so any reduced production would mean fewer offers at the end of the year when the harvest is most active. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 4.775 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2500, 2525, and 2550 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1690 September. Support is at 1625, 1600, and 1580 September, with resistance at 1655, 1670, and 1685 September.