Stock indexes due for a correction after tight trading range

ESU3 (CME:ESU13) due for a correction to the downside: Equities traded in an extremely tight range last night and only widened slightly heading into this morning as the S&P 500 has a 6 point range this session. A lower high leads to the slight belief we are seeing some profit taking above 1700. The market is showing signs of stalling out but more likely needs a consolidation after grinding through 1695.50 at the end of last week. Manufacturing data out of Europe beat expectations and traders will be awaiting Trade Balance and Redbook data domestically. The comments out of Dallas Fed President Fisher likely kept this market in check just above 1700 as traders do not want to see the back stop removed. Support will continue to come in at 1695.50 and a close below there will likely signal a small consolidation lower that could get as low as major support at 1681; at which point we would look to back up the truck and buy. A close below this level will be concerning though. Resistance remains at 1703-05 although the next intermediate term upside target sits at 1711. Bernanke talks tomorrow, we may be in store for another range bound day; use the levels and the current 1695.50 - 1705 range.

Resistance - 1703-05*, 1711**, 1721*, 1757****

Support - 1695.50**, 1689*, 1681***, 1676*

A close above $107.60 and we make new yearly highs: Crude Oil (NYMEX:CLU13) has continued to consolidate at the right spot after holding major support at the 50% retracement level yesterday; $105.75 with a low of $105.70. Currently the market is $1 higher with a higher low at $105.97 after Manufacturing data out of Europe has beaten expectations and supports stronger demand. This encouraging economic news though now brings about supply concerns out of the Middle East and North Africa as the supply-demand tug of war continues as traders day trade the economic news. Technically, this market has done nothing wrong and the bulls should be watching for a close back above $106.91 to confirm a retest to the highs. Only a new low and close back below support at $105.75-95, which has come in huge over the last two trading days, will show a sign of consolidation lower. Still only a close back below $105 and $104.79 is needed to show a sign of failure. As we have continued to say though, this market is in a strong uptrend and can remain bullish all the way back down to $99.

Pivot - 106.91

Resistance - 107.52-88**, 108.82-93***, 110.00***, 113.14***

Support - 105.75-95**, 104.79-105***, 103.67-85**

About the Author
Rich Ilczyszyn

Rich Ilczyszyn is Founder and Chief Market Strategist of Rich excels at creating dynamic trading strategies for clients that establish solid positions, while remaining flexible enough to capitalize on market opportunities when they arise. By identifying market trends, breakouts, and failures in a timely fashion, Rich presents clients with the opportunity to realize their objectives while effectively managing their risk.

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