GM to Toyota gains keep U.S. on pace for best sales since 2007

Missing Estimates

Analysts had predicted even bigger sales growth than most of the largest automakers reported today. The averages of nine analysts’ estimates were for increases of 20% for GM, 17% for Ford and 16% for Chrysler. Nissan missed the 13% average estimate of seven analysts.

Toyota’s July increase was in line with the average 17% gain of seven estimates. Deliveries of the Toyota City, Japan-based company’s Prius hybrid line surged 40% and its Camry mid-size car climbed 16%.

Honda deliveries beat the 16% average gain of seven estimates. Sales of the Civic small car surged 30% to 32,416, its best ever July.

Nissan’s total sales set a company record for the month of July. Deliveries of the Yokohama, Japan-based automaker’s Altima mid-size car rose 11%, and its Pathfinder SUV more than tripled.

Camry Leases

With $199-a-month leases on its Camry, Toyota is fueling a rise in leasing among hot-selling mid-size sedans in addition to its traditional role as a tool for selling luxury vehicles. The deals are being offered to help Camry remain the top-selling car in the U.S., much as they aided Toyota’s recovery from record recalls and Japan’s 2011 tsunami.

“We can expect that it will be a very good leasing month,” Michelle Krebs, an analyst at auto researcher Edmunds.com, said in a telephone interview. “All you have to do is turn on the TV and you see lease ad after lease ad. There’s such an intense battle in that mid-size segment.”

Leasing’s share of U.S. new-vehicle sales has been at least 22.5% in every month this year, according to J.D. Power & Associates. The four top months for lease penetration in the last decade, the extent of Power’s data, were in 2013, and each of the year’s first six months rank among the top nine, the Westlake Village, California-based researcher said.

As leasing boosts sales of a broader range of segments, growing full-size pickup deliveries have been more closely tied to replacement demand. Of the 31 million trucks on U.S. roads, 14 million are more than 11 years old, said Ken Czubay, Ford’s vice president of U.S. marketing, sales and service.

Detroit Pickups

“Those are vehicles that, when they replace them with a Ford pickup truck, they get significant improvements in fuel economy” and technology, Czubay said today on a conference call. Buyers in the housing, construction and oil service industries “have got to have trucks that will perform, and that’s the pent-up demand that we see.”

Sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks climbed 23% to 60,449, the Dearborn, Michigan-based company said in a statement. Deliveries surged 45% to 42,080 for GM’s Chevy Silverado and 31% to 31,314 for Chrysler’s Ram pickup.

Volkswagen AG, based in Wolfsburg, Germany, reported a 0.3% gain in combined sales of its VW and Audi brands, trailing the 2.2% increase that was the average of four estimates. The Passat sedan and the Beetle were the VW brand’s only model lines to post gains from a year earlier.

Combined sales for Hyundai Motor Co. and its affiliate Kia Motors Corp. rose 4.5% in July, better than the 3.4 average gain of seven analysts. The Seoul-based carmakers have trailed industrywide sales growth in every month since September. Deliveries of Hyundai’s Elantra increased 29%.

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