ESU3 (CME:ESU13) — If the bears don't get what they want by the end of the week, look for the bulls to take control: Equities recovered very well late in the session yesterday after the bears attempted to take control. As they were unable to follow through to the downside, rough support at 1676 came in very well and the close at 1682.50 was very encouraging as it was above the 1681 level. With a low this session of 1682, if the opportunity to buy at 1681 arises, the slight new low will be very attractive. A close above 1686.50 will be very important for momentum as the 1690 light resistance level has stood pretty well. This morning traders await Consumer Confidence data, which will be very helpful for momentum. Good news will likely be good news as tomorrow will be the major day leading up to Friday's official Non-Farm Payroll release. Only a close back below 1676 will show signs of failure but a close back below 1666.75 will confirm the failure.
Resistance - 1686.50**, 1690*, 1695.50*, 1700**, 1711*, 1757***
Support - 1681**, 1676*, 1670.50*, 1666.75***, 1648-51**, 1642*
CLU3 (NYMEX:CLU13) — Hedge funds hold a record LONG position near term support $99.00: Crude Oil is trading to new swing lows this morning as the market has reached a low of $103.56 so far. Poor data out of Europe has put a slight drag on commodity prices to start the morning, and a signal that Australia may lower interest rates has encouraged an uptick in the U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DXU13). Still, the psychological 82 level has acted as strong resistance and a close above there today will help encourage a strong chart setup in the Dollar, likely putting further pressure on commodities. A close below the $103.67-85 level in crude will weigh heavily, likely creating more liquidation as crude corrects into key economic data tomorrow and later in the week. A close back above $104.55, yesterday's market close will put this market against resistance but also negate some of the early negative activity. The $104.79-$105 level will be crucial resistance and be a tough barrier for this market to reach back above yesterday's $105.37 high.
Resistance -104.79-105***, 105.75-105.95**, 106.91**, 107.88*, 108.93**, 110.00***
Support - 103.67-103.85**, 103*, 101.50-72***