Natural gas falls with temperatures throughout U.S.

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 07/30/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/24/2013 @ 107.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/2013 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
    • September Brent Crude moved just slightly higher on Monday as it continued to increase the spread between itself and WTI back near $3 as the market continues to remain range bound as it has over the last three weeks.
    • Traders should expect mostly a bout of backing and filling until mid-week and dependent upon the multiple data points expected to be released Wednesday, either explode to new four-month highs or break back below $104.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.31
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (September ‘13): (NYMEX:CLU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/2013 @ 106.47. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/24/2013 @ 105.39. Downside Targets =  103.61 – 102.75
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on the current move @ 103.87.
    • September WTI Crude Oil fell marginally lower again on Monday in a very tight trading range as traders await a slew of economic data releases this week causing volatility to remain depressed likely until mid-week.
    • Look for more of the same price action Tuesday as crude should back and fill between $104 and $105 throughout most of the trading session until Wednesday a.m.’s GDP report.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.67
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.77
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (September ‘13): (NYMEX:NGU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/26/2013 @ 3.611. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/26/2013 @ 3.563. Downside Targets = 3.433 – 3.383
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 3.427. STR3MO 75% achieved.
    • September Natural Gas gapped lower to begin this week’s trading activity as cool temps throughout the NE kept pressure applied to the market that has now fallen more than $0.35 cents in the last four trading sessions.
    • Natural gas was able to rebound a bit off of the session lows and should see further short-covering during Tuesday’s session to try and fill the weekly close gap before faltering in the second half of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .115
  • Projected Weekly Range: .242
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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