At this point it’s just hypothesizing on my part but while the VIX continues to drop here are the few storm clouds I see on the horizon. This doesn’t even consider what will happen when Congress comes back at the end of August and they start posturing for the new budget. The president had a speech on the economy this week. We know that. What we also know is the House GOP stands in the way of any meaningful legislation that could break the logjam. How many times has the GOP attempted to repeal Obamacare? As of May it was 36 times. But now that we are getting closer to the debt ceiling debate we hear the GOP won’t agree to any increases in the ceiling which may be tied to Obamacare. This time they might have some leverage. The bottom line here is that while the market certainly enjoys Bernanke backing off from his threats to taper the bond buying program, it is deathly afraid of another debt ceiling debacle.
So for now the risk is for a shake of the trees to take some of the weaker hands out of the market. The bigger picture has a few storm clouds on the horizon and the time windows for this activity is getting close.