Crude trend is bullish in short-term

Daily Market Analysis for July 29

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar 

ENERGIES 

Brent Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/24/2013 @ 107.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/2013 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • Inside compression day generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 107.00 or lower.
    • September Brent Crude fell lower for much of this past week as the sideways congestion helped to keep a lid on price increases while the market closed lower for the second consecutive trading week.
    • Traders should expect to see the market fall back below $105 in this coming week to relieve some of the buying pressure that has been built up over the last month before it can start the next leg higher and push through the $110 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.31
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

 

WTI Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/2013 @ 106.47. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/24/2013 @ 105.39. Downside Targets =  103.61 – 102.75
  • New lows made on the current move Friday @ 103.90.
    • September WTI Crude Oil dropped over $5 from the contract highs made 2 weeks ago during this past week’s trading activity to nearly close below the low of the high week traders viewed the rise above Brent as an opportunity to sell this market more aggressively.
    • After touching the 20-day moving average towards the end of this past week, WTI should continue to fall lower in the early parts of this coming trading week and possibly near the $100 level where the old resistance should become new support and help to once again propel the market back towards my end of year objective at $115.65
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.13
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.77
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

 

Natural Gas (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/26/2013 @ 3.611. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/26/2013 @ 3.563. Downside Targets = 3.433 – 3.383
  • Partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.611. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.563.
    • September Natural Gas fell back lower this week after being unable to break through the $3.80 level as traders took advantage of the recent increase in prices as a prime opportunity to add new short positions.
    • Once natural gas moves below $3.545, it will confirm a failure of the weekly OVB generated 2 weeks ago and then trigger additional selling below $3.40 that should fill the weekly gap that was left back in late February of this year between $3.349 - $3.385.
  • Projected Daily Range: .103
  • Projected Weekly Range: .242
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
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