Cotton falls on demand destruction worries

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower in New York as almost all of the Coffee areas in Brazil escaped major damage. It is just too hard to get a lot of loss as most of the Coffee production has left Parana for warmer climates. But, there has been a lot of rain to hurt the harvest and possibly cause some quality losses. Robusta prices remain firm and could hold strong this week as heavy rains could affect production areas of Southeast Asia. Chart trends are mixed. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.755 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.22 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 119.00, and 118.00 September, and resistance is at 127.00, 129.00, and 132.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1880 and 1820 September. Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1950, 2000, and 2010 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 145.00, 143.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 151.00, 152.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR  

General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and higher in London as weather concerns in Brazil continue. Speculators are still very short in this market and have decided to cover some of these positions in the aftermath of forecasts calling for wet weather in Brazil. Some buying has been noted in reaction to the falling Indian Rupee that makes it harder to believe that the country will export much. Short term trends are mixed, but the market is trying to complete a bottom. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and warm temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1615, 1595, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1655, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 473.00, 468.00, and 461.00 October, and resistance is at 484.00, 489.00, and 491.00 October.

COCOA  

General Comments: Futures closed lower in range trading. Some feel that the weather is too dry in Ivory Coast, but the weather remains generally good in Africa. Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have the best rains, and it remains a little too dry in many parts of Ivory Coast. Temperatures are moderate. Ivory Coast will still need more rain, but it is seeing some each day now. Other west African countries are reported to have good conditions. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Price action is weak and the market might be making a short term top.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.823 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2250 September, with resistance at 2380, 2440, and 2470 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1570, 1560, and 1550 September, with resistance at 1590, 1610, and 1625 September.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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