Oil sees bearish momentum extending through end of week

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday, 07/25/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/24/2013 @ 107.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/2013 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • Partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 107.00. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 107.00 or lower.
    • September Brent Crude dropped lower on Wednesday as an expected increase in volatility helped apply pressure to a market that had virtually remained stagnant over the previous few weeks.
    • Having violated the lows of last week, Brent should face some further downward pressure going into the weekend after some modest backing and filling as the market looks to take aim at a ST mean regressive move back below $105.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.52
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.46
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (September ‘13): (NYMEX:CLU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/2013 @ 106.47. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/24/2013 @ 105.39. Downside Targets =  103.61 – 102.75
  • Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 105.39.
    • September WTI Crude Oil dropped significantly lower on Wednesday after an early test of Tuesday’s high failed and commenced to close at its lowest level in nine trading sessions.
    • Look for Wednesday bearish momentum to extend itself into the second half of the week and for WTI to target the weekly downside price objective of $102.86.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.31
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (September ‘13): (NYMEX:NGU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/2013 @ 3.719. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.654. Upside Targets = 3.708 – 3.764.
    • September Natural Gas spiked higher during mid-session trading on Wednesday to nearly fill the weekly close gap that still remains in this market before breaking lower in the second half of trading to make new lows on the day.
    • Wednesday’s price action ahead of Thursday’s storage report would suggest that the market should look to test the current lows of the week and should injections top the 50 bcf mark, look for natural to fall below $3.60.
  • Projected Daily Range: .128
  • Projected Weekly Range: .224
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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