FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again in quiet trading. The tropics remain quiet for now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but the precipitation is the key right now. The tropics appear quiet and there are no storms in view. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production. It could turn cold in some production areas early next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Neilsen said hat demand for the four weeks ending July 6 was 39.53 million gallons, down 1% from the previous period and the lowest total for a period since January of 2002.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 145.00, 142.50, and 140.00 September, with resistance at 149.00, 153.00, and 154.50 September.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures moved slightly higher on some forecasts for dry weather to return this week to Texas, but held the recent trading range on reports of improved conditions in Texas. These reports were somewhat confirmed with the weekly crop progress reports from USDA released last night. Temperatures are warmer again in Texas and rain was reported in central and western parts of the state, including key Cotton producing areas last week. The rains there are called very beneficial. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are much improved and these states will see some showers this week as temperatures turn somewhat cooler later in the week. It is possible that futures can continue to work lower over time as demand has turned soft and as the weather is getting better in almost all US production areas. However, follow through buying is possible early this week. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers off and on all week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see drier weather this week and maybe some showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.31 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.330 million bales, from 0.447 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 87.50, 89.60, and 92.50 October. Support is at 85.50, 85.20, and 84.30 October, with resistance of 86.50, 87.00, and 87.50 October.
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Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
