Natural gas rally sees room to run before hitting resistance

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 07/23/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.09. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • Inside compression day generated on Monday. Possible partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 107.00. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 107.00 or lower.
    • September Brent Crude settled just marginally higher on Monday in a very narrow trading session but ended its streak of 11 consecutive days of higher highs.
    • Monday’s neutralization in price action after the steady climb higher could yield to a little profit taking relief on Tuesday but given recent market trends, expect for Brent to continue to slowly work higher as it tries to break through $110.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.38
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.46
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (September ‘13): (NYMEX:CLU13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 96.18. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 97.05. Upside Targets =  99.22102.73
  • Possible partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 106.47. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 106.47 or lower.
    • September WTI Crude Oil dropped significantly lower for the first time in almost a month on Monday after daily stochastic oscillators reached a tipping point causing what should be a brief dip lower.
    • WTI should regain its bullish momentum on Tuesday in the early goings before facing a test near the $108 level as the market appears to be top-heavy at current levels.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.13
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (August ‘13): (NYMEX:NGQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/2013 @ 3.719. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.654. Upside Targets = 3.708 – 3.764.
    • August Natural Gas dropped sharply lower in early trading Monday as it tested the lower reaches of last week’s trading range before finding support just below $3.65 and rallying back near the daily mid-point.
    • Look for a continuation of Monday’s second half rally to unfold Tuesday and test Monday’s high before running into further resistance and dropping back lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: .127
  • Projected Weekly Range: .224
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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