Global ending stocks for 2013-14 are estimated at 16.2% of consumption. That compares with 14.3% for 2012-13, but represents no improvement over the five-year average. Strong demand will not be a surprise, though, because the USDA is already forecasting record global consumption that, if achieved, will be 11% higher than the five-year average. So it all comes down to the US crop. If the weather is favorable, we will see new-crop prices continue to drift lower.
We were stopped out of long position at $5.05 per bushel, as per our May 9 recommendation. From the case presented above, it would seem that a short position would be in order. We caution, however, that any glitch in the weather will be painful, so we prefer to stand aside for the moment.