Sugar trend remains down on Brazil crop expectations

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher. Futures made a new high for the move and closed well, so some more buying is possible this week. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but the precipitation is the key right now. The tropics appear quiet and there are no storms in view. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 and 155.00 September. Support is at 140.00, 136.50, and 134.00 September, with resistance at 143.00, 145.00, and 147.00 September.

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York on speculative buying tied to some forecasts for colder and wetter conditions for Brazil Coffee areas starting this weekend. No forecast is calling for damaging temperatures, but the market is short. In addition, the rain could disturb the last of the harvest. Chart trends turned up in New York with the price action yesterday. London moved higher on some buying tied to fewer offers from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out. Trends remain up in that market. Offers of Arabica from origin are still hard to find and feature strong differentials. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather for the rest of the week. It could turn wetter and colder this weekend. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.748 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 121.10 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 811 contracts. The Customs Bureau in Vietnam said exports in June were 88,367 tons, down 24.3% from May and 37.5% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 132.00 and 140.00 September. Support is at 124.00, 120.00, and 119.00 September, and resistance is at 127.00, 129.00, and 132.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1980 September. Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1975, 1995, and 2010 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying tied to ideas that the North American grind data could be very strong. The US data should be out Thursday. Ivory Coast noted that it has forward sold a lot of the new crop production already, so that meant that selling pressure will be much less down the road. Ideas of good harvest weather in western Africa remain, although some areas might be seeing some delays from showers and storms passing through the region. Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have the most problems with the rains, and it remains a little too dry in many parts of Ivory Coast. The cash market in Africa is slow right now as buyers have already bought and are now waiting to see how the main crop turns out late this year. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. A few showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, but Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Other west African countries are reported to have good conditions. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. The Asian Cocoa grind was 153,792 tons in the second quarter, up 2% from last year.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.805 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 382 contracts. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2165 September, with resistance at 2300, 2350, and 2380 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1590 and 1640 September. Support is at 1560, 1550, and 1530 September, with resistance at 1590, 1610, and 1640 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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