Natural gas regains losses, but may turn lower

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 07/16/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.09. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 108.27.
    • September Brent Crude logged its seventh straight day of higher highs on Monday as it continues to gain ground despite a bearish rate of change and peaking daily stochastic values.
    • Having violated last week’s VRCB high, traders should be advised that should the market break below last week’s low of 106.09, it could signal an IT sell-off back below $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.49
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (August ‘13): (NYMEX:CLQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 96.18. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 97.05. Upside Targets =  99.22102.73
  • Possible partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 104.30. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 104.30 or lower.
    • August WTI Crude Oil rose higher on Monday after recovering its early losses to settle just off the daily highs as it has remained in a virtual sideways trading pattern over the last four trading days.
    • WTI has been on a meteoric rise over the past three weeks and while there is room for some ST relief, the market should hold its head above $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.36
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.03
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (August ‘13): (NYMEX:NGQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/15/2013 @ 3.573. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.654. Upside Targets = 3.708 – 3.764.
  • Bullish AOVB generated on Monday. Partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.573.
    • August Natural Gas erased all of its losses sustained throughout the trading day during the last half-hour of the pit session as the market rose to settle 13 cents off the daily lows.
    • Monday’s late short-covering rally should give back some gains early Monday before going after last Thursday’s high of $3.702 where stops may be placed and then returning back lower toward the second half of the trading week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .121
  • Projected Weekly Range: .237
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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