Coffee moves higher on forecasts for cold, wet Brazil weather

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York on speculative buying tied to some forecasts for colder and wetter conditions for Brazil coffee areas starting this weekend. No forecast is calling for damaging temperatures, but the market is short. In addition, the rain could disturb the last of the harvest. London moved higher on some buying tied to fewer offers from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out. Offers of Arabica from origin are still hard to find and feature strong differentials. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. It could turn wetter and colder this weekend. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little higher today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.41 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 811 contracts. Safras e Mercados said that Brazil producers have sold 91% of the current production and 13% of the next production, both a little above averages. GCA stocks are now 5.201 million bags, from 5.147 million at the end of May.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 119.00, and 117.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1940 and 1980 September. Support is at 1860, 1820, and 1790 September, and resistance is at 1940, 1950, and 1975 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 150.00, and 151.00 September.

COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)

General Comments: Futures were mixed in quiet trading. After the close, USDA showed marginal deterioration in crop conditions. The conditions had been mostly anticipated by the trade. Parts of the Southeast are getting too much rain and Texas growing areas remain mostly hot and dry. However, temperatures turned much cooler in Texas yesterday and rain was reported in central parts of the state. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now, but will see warm temperaturas and some showers this week, with most of the precipitation in Eastern and southern areas. It is possible that futures can continue to work lower as demand has turned soft, but production and weather might be more important in the short term. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China. China says it will work to reduce the big supplies it has in government storage. It has been trying to auction Cotton to domestic mills, but the asking prices are too high and the quality offered by the government is said to be not good.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and rains through the week, mostly in southern and Eastern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see some showers early this week and drier weather later this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 81.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.540 million bales, from 0.540 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 83.00 October. Support is at 84.00, 83.10, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 87.00 October.

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