Coffee moves higher on forecasts for cold, wet Brazil weather

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)

General Comments: Futures closed mixed in quiet trading. Futures made a new high for the move, but lacked a good reason to move much higher as growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but the precipitation is the key right now. The tropics appear quiet and there are no storms in view. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 and 155.00 September. Support is at 136.50, 134.00, and 132.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 145.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on forecasts for cooler and wetter conditions to develop in Brazil this weekend and on a tender from Iraq to buy at least 50,000 tons of White Sugar. Iraq will probably buy much more than that. Bears were unable to keep the selling pressure on today despite bearish fundamentals, and prices have been able to hold above 1600 NY October until now. Futures trends remain down overall and price action has been weak. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production and better weather now, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern areas are in good shape, but southern areas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is possible in the short term. In addition, industry sources there told wire services this week that planted area is down by about 5% and that overall production would be lower even with very good weather. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains. Traders will keep an eye on Ethanol demand and see if the production of Ethanol continues to siphon Sugar from the market.

Overnight News: Brazil should be mostly dry and warm this week, but could see colder and wetter weather this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 October, and resistance is at 1630, 1650, and 1665 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 448.00 October. Support is at 460.00, 457.00, and 454.00 October, and resistance is at 466.00, 470.00, and 476.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on what was called speculative long liquidation tied to less than expected grind demand from Europe. The European Grind for the second quote was released yesterday morning and was 310,408 tons, up 6.1% from last year. Traders had been expecting about a 10% increase. The Asian grind was 72,191 tons, down 3.1% from last year. The US data should be out Thursday. Ideas of good harvest weather in western Africa remain, although some areas might be seeing some delays from showers and storms passing through the region. Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have the most problems with the rains, and it remains a little too dry i many parts of Ivory Coast. The cash market in Africa is slow right now as buyers have already bought and are now waiting to see how the main crop turns out late this year. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. A few showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, but Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Other west African countries are reported to have good conditions. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.822 million bags. ICE said that 4 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 382 contracts. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2260 September. Support is at 2210, 2165, and 2130 September, with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1590 and 1640 September. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1460 September, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 September.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus