RBOB gasoline (NYMEX:RBQ13) lead last week as the highest percent mover for the week rising 7.58%. Last week August 2013 RBOB opened at $2.9015 and closed the week at $3.1175. On July 1, gasoline opened at $2.7101 and since then we have only seen one red candle in July.
Price action on the weekly chart shows how $2.9000 was completely penetrated as a range top while the market moved up last week to $3.1175. Price now is hanging around $3.1000, an area of past resistance. After this, the next stop to watch for is $3.2000 and after that $3.4000 could be in sight.
In today’s June Retail Sales report it showed service station sales up 0.7% as pump prices increased. Keep an eye on big money in the coming weeks to get insight if RBOB will re-test $3.4000. If increased bull posturing, then it is on-ward and up-ward for gasoline and the prices we pay at the pumps.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
In this past week’s COT report, we saw Producers adding to net shorts now -92,197 contracts. Producers have a ways to go to reach their 52-week net short low of -154,481 contracts. Managed Money added to net longs now at 31,748 contracts and Swap Dealers did have a very small drop of net longs to 46,549 contracts.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
Technicals on the daily chart show ADX at 47.3 reflecting a very strong trend with the signs of strength developing back on July 5, and Stochastics are in deep overbought territory. MACD is bullish. The technical trade set-up was highlighted on the Futures Strategizer at Trends is Futures on July 2 with DI Differential hitting zero and the close that day closing over the 4-, 9-, and 18-day exponential moving averages. Strong signs it was time to look for a long entry.
Click to enlarge.
On RBOB’s weekly chart you can see ADX rising to 23.6 which is still a weak trend with signs of strengthening as ADX rises north of 20. After last week’s price action Stochastics on the weekly chart have entered overbought territory.
Have a prosperous trading week.
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